National Security Notebook | Number 12, June 13, 2026

Morocco is a kingdom in a hurry.

Some two decades ago, when the U.S. military began the process of establishing an independent military command for Africa, Morocco ranked high on the list of potential basing locations. Back then, though, the idea was met with a decidedly chilly reception in Rabat. Around that time, on my first trip to Morocco, I heard from national security professionals in no uncertain terms that such a role was basically off the table. “Everywhere America goes, al-Qaeda follows,” one intelligence expert told me. The message was clear: Morocco, then nervously eyeing the regional dynamics that would coalesce into the “Arab Spring,” had no interest in inviting greater instability.

Today, the thinking is quite different. Over the course of conversations with officials and experts during a trip there last month, it became clear that Morocco now sees a window of opportunity to improve its regional position – and to upgrade its partnership with America in the process.

The history is instructive here. At the end of President Trump’s first term in office, the White House recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara as part of its entry into the Abraham Accords. The Biden administration belatedly affirmed that recognition, but it did little of substance to strengthen Rabat’s claim - refusing to build a physical consulate and even barring its ambassador from traveling to what the Kingdom calls the “southern provinces.”

So naturally, now that the Trump administration is back in charge, Morocco is figuring out the best way to secure its gains in the Sahara. To that end, officials in Rabat have been working diligently to attract foreign direct investment into the area, and seem amenable to giving American companies “first mover advantage” in order to spur greater investment and economic development there.

Significantly, they also appear to be rethinking that old question of military basing. Multiple officials I spoke with were prepared to discuss the possibility, framing it as a logical extension of the historic U.S.-Morocco partnership and a concrete way Rabat could “prove its worth” to an America that, under President Trump, has become preoccupied with burden-sharing.

Significantly, though, such a shift would not be without its complications for Morocco.

One potential problem is a more adversarial relationship with China. For years, the Kingdom has prided itself on its ability to stay on the sidelines of the unfolding great power rivalry between the United States and China, and for good reason.

Morocco simultaneously ranks as a key U.S. political ally and a major trading partner of the PRC. Annual bilateral trade with China now approaches $11 billion, with the overwhelming bulk of that volume comprised of Chinese exports to the Kingdom. Beijing, moreover, is widening its stake in the Kingdom in such sectors as automotive parts, with an eye on the nearby (and lucrative) European consumer market. A permanent American military presence, though, would shunt Morocco squarely into the U.S. camp in a way that could complicate Rabat’s expanding economic ties to Beijing.

A second potential problem lies closer to home. The Moroccan government is already under fire at home for its ongoing partnership with Israel, which rubs up against the widespread pro-Palestinian sentiments of the country’s population. With general elections coming up in less than half-a-year, Moroccan officials are understandably wary of making moves that might open up the government (and the King) to additional criticism from opposition elements.

In other words, a conversation about military basing might not be on the bilateral agenda in the immediate future. Over the longer term, though, it certainly is… or should be.