National Security Notebook | Number 9, May 16, 2026
CENTCOM sets the Iran record straight.
If you’ve been anywhere near the Internet over the past two weeks, you’ve assuredly read the same analyses that I have about the Iran war: that it has become a stalemate; that America is caught in a quagmire; and – even more hyperbolically – that the Trump administration has suffered a “total defeat” at the hands of those hardy Iranians. With all this doom and gloom ricocheting around the infosphere, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the Iranians have simply wiped the floor with us.
That, however, has decidedly not been the case. This past week, Adm. Brad Cooper, the Commander of U.S. Central Command, testified before the House Armed Services Committee on CENTCOM’s current posture and strategic outlook. His full statement can be found here, and it’s well worth a thorough read. Here are just a few highlights pertaining to Iran:
ON IRAN’S PROXY NETWORK
Iran can no longer reliably arm or resupply Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, or militia groups in Iraq with advanced weapons. These groups, the Iranian Threat Network, have been the backbone of Iran’s work to destabilize the region. This dynamic presents an opportunity for a generational shift in the regional balance of power…
Most importantly for the region’s future: Iran will be highly challenged to proliferate advanced weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, or the Iraqi militia groups. The supply chain from Tehran to the proxies has been broken.
ON IRAN’S BALLISTIC MISSILE CAPABILITIES
We damaged or destroyed over 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone, and naval defense industrial base. More than 1,450 strikes on weapons manufacturing facilities set the regime’s ability to build and stockpile ballistic missiles and long-range drones back by years. The factories and technical workforce that produced Iran’s ballistic missiles, long-range attack drones, and naval platforms have been degraded to the point that Iran cannot replace its lost capabilities in the near term.
ON IRAN’S AIR FORCE
In the air domain, Iran’s air and air defense forces are functionally and operationally irrelevant. Before OEF, the Iranian Air Force flew between 30 and 100 sorties each day. Today that number is zero. We destroyed or rendered non-mission-capable Iran’s fixed-wing airfields, hangars, fuel storage, and munitions stockpiles, and we knocked out 82 percent of its air defense missile systems along with the radar and command architecture that tied them together.
ON IRAN’S NAVY
At sea, we destroyed 161 vessels in total across 16 classes of warships, effectively crippling the regime’s ability to operate. We eliminated more than 90 percent of Iran’s once-massive inventory of over 8,000 naval mines, with more than 700 airstrikes on Iranian naval mine targets. In sum, Iran’s navy can no longer claim to be a maritime power, and it cannot project into the Gulf of Oman or the Indian Ocean. Iran retains nuisance capability – harassment, low-end drone and rocket attacks, and residual proxy support – but it no longer possesses the means to threaten major regional operations or to deter U.S. freedom of action in the air or maritime domains.
Put another way, perhaps the Iran conflict hasn’t been quite the rout the defeatists would have us believe.
This is not to say that significant challenges don’t exist. They most assuredly do. The current, blocked status of the Strait of Hormuz remains a huge problem both for global energy markets and for the credibility of the United States. So, too, is the disposition of Iran’s nuclear program, over which Iranian leaders are still not willing to compromise in a meaningful way. Then there are the Administration’s own shifting priorities and muddled messaging, which have unsettled regional allies and complicated precisely the type of coalition building the Mideast now needs.
These unresolved issues are contributing, correctly, to the frustration we’re now hearing about the conflict. But when it comes to who’s currently up and who’s down as a result of Operation Epic Fury, the record is actually pretty clear.